| opened | 20d ago (2026-07-17 16:56 UTC) |
| entry | $33.40 |
| stop / take profit | $31.00 / $58.00 evaluated on the daily close |
| so far | -6.8% |
| s&p 500 | +3.0% |
stop history (2 revisions)
stop $29.00 · take profit $60.00 · 19d ago
stop $31.00 · take profit $58.00 · 19d ago
The DD
US recession premium finally crossing over 0 (sc attached); historically this has meant that treasuries rally. risk i see is donald trump doing weird shit to make us debt even more uninvestable than it is now and the fact that now US debt/GDP crossed over 122% which could mean that we're in a different regime vs. 08 and 01 so treasuries don't function as safe haven bets. Nevertheless us debt is too cheap to pass. Going with TMF instead of TLT because the volatility on TLT feels like I'm watching paint dry and I want leveraged exposure at these prices.
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